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Simpleviewsgold.com
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Welcome to simpleviewsgold, a website devoted to simple observations, opinions, and
information about Gold and related markets that are deemed to be of sufficient interest to warrant sharing them with others.
None of the opinions expressed should be construed as investment advice. Constructive
comments, useful data, or expressions of alternate views are warmly invited.
Claude Biava, Editor
contact@simpleviewsgold.com
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May 12, 2008 |
The scenario for a possible stock market bottom:1990 recession re-visited again
The similarities between current economic and stock market conditions and those observed during the 1990 recession are becoming increasingly impressive.
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Temporary Oil Tp in the making
Under the constraint of our principal technical indicator of overbought condition,
a temporary top of the price of Oil is now in the making at around the $125
level anticipated earlier.
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Gold,Yen,T2 Note (GYN) Monitor Update
With Oil price rising and inflationary pressure mounting, interest rates are moving
higher. At this time these factors can only support the US Dollar and depress Gold
and other major currencies
(see: the GYN trio).
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Earnings, Major Stock Indexes, and Gold Prices: Tentative 2008 and 2009 projections
There are no changes to record this week
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Possible Oil crunch, "Oil Vigilantes", and the 1970-80 Experience
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COT Index Update
This week the COT continued its decline but at a slower pace tracing
an ABC pattern that ended in neutral territory. Together with other indicators,
this pattern is consistent with a temporary exhaustion of institutional selling
pressure which will allow a modest rally to develop during the next few weeks.
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Rising Oil Prices: Crunch time may be here.
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May 6, 2008 Charts of the Day
Computer simulation of possible Oil prices projected to One Year Hence
From educated forecasts to pure speculation and noisy chatter, the subject of Oil
prices, how high they will go,
how fast, has become the most popular guessing game in town as prices broke out decidedly
above $120/barrel today.
We join the game with a computer simulation of possible future prices for the period May 2008-April
2009
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Updated Chart of the SP500 in the 1990 vs 2008 Recession.
The similarity between the stock market bottom in 1990 and 2008,
as illustrated in the Charts of the SP500 of the two periods, has been
highlighted in this site since February and continues to be striking. See:
The scenario for a possible stock market bottom:1990 recession re-visited again
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Pan American Silver (PAAS):
A Fundamental Charting Experiment.
As of May 2, in spite of a big drop of Gold prices below $850 intraday,
PAAS was down only slightly and did not violate the calculated minimum
price of $32. Observations will be continued over a three months period
before declaring the experiment a success or failure.
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Today, Gold had its "Bloody Thursday" matching "Black Tuesday"
of Jan. 22 for the stock market. The total drop of the two markets from their tops
also was similar: about 20% for both. With a closing at $851, Gold hit the
first target ($852) identified last week based on the price relative to the 40 weeks mavg.
See the updated Chart 1 in:
The GYN Trio: Gold, Yen, and T-2 years Note
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Charts of the Day:
Schizophrenic Gold and Stock Markets' Response to the Fed's Monetary Policy Announcement.
Both Gold and stock markets reacted to the Fed's somewhat evasive statement
of monetary policy with a schizophrenic kind of behavior more appropriate for
the first "Fools' Day" of April than for the last day of the month.
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Oil and Euro: Overview of Current Situation and Long Term prospects
The month of April is closing with Oil and Euro at an especially critical situation as they have
reached the measured maximum targets according to the parameters used in this site. It is
timely, therefore, to critically review their current situation and consider their longer term
prospects.
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April 27, 2008
The GYN Trio: Gold, Yen, and T-2 years Note. An outlook for Gold Update
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April 27, 2008
Replacing the GEO Trio with and Introducing the new GYN Trio
As preliminarily mentioned in the April 23 report Outlook for Gold: Headwinds
from Interest Rates and Carry Trade,
a new Trio: Gold, Japanese Yen, and
US T-2 Note (The GYN) is being introduced in this site as
a replacement of the
GEO Trio (Gold, Euro, Oil).
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The Gold Barometer was updated with new projections for the next 4 months to reflect the recent sharp rise in interest rates and the probability that the Fed won't cut interest rates further after this month. As a result the Barometer, after surpassing the 2003 high established under Mr. Greenspan, has begun a gradual decline.
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Outlook for Gold : Headwinds from Interest Rates and Carry Trade.
Japanese Yen tells the story.
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Recession or no recession: A "Ballo in Maschera"
Amazing as it may seem, economic pundits and politicians are still debating whether or not the economy is in recession.
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A 10-year weekly chart of Goldcorp featuring a rare clean uptrend channel.
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An abrupt about face of the Gold Bull: reasons and consequences
The about face of the Gold was not a complete surprise, its abruptness was.
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Chart of the Day: Panoramic Monthly Oil Chart
Oil price heading to the top of a multi-year channel. At this time the point of contact with the upper line of the channel corresponds to a price of about $130/barrel.
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A Triplet Charts of the Day
Three Charts fished out of the Dow Jones Industrial's pond: BAC, C, and GE. They share a special sweet-and-sour flavor, awkward profiles, and intriguing long term prospects even though two of them are not out of the Intensive Care Unit yet.
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April 8, 2008
Gold and the Dow/Gold Ratio
Monthly charts confirm recent indications (see: Dow Gold ratio, Weekly Chart) that common stocks are now due to outperform the precious metal sector.
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April 6, 2008
Outlook for the US Dollar and Gold
The outlook for Gold should never be considered independently of the outlook for the
US Dollar. Accordingly, the US Dollar will be considered first with emphasis on exchange rates of European currencies and
their levels relative to their Purchasing Power Parity.
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ISEE Investors' Sentiment Index: Bullish for the Stock market
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SP500 today vs 1990
Today's Chart of the SP500 is compared to that of the market bottom at the end of 1990. The similarities are striking.
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Chart of the day: ECRI Leading Index
The percent decline of this weekly index has reached the low levels last seen at the bottom of the 1990 and 2001 recessions. Astonishgly, economists are still debating whether or not the economy is in recession.
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About whether or not : "Is the Fed Deflating"
An attempt to contribute reasonable answers to the questions, not to a strident debate.
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A simulation of yearly Gold prices as suggested by the current decline :
No need to take Sinclair's bold challenge.
It is frankly admitted that this report may represent no more than an egregious example of jumping the guns as it is published so soon after the sharp fall of Gold in the past few days. Nevertheless, it is believed justified by technical and fundamental considerations and therefore is reported as a helpful exercise in prudence.
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March 31, 2008
While Gold takes a well deserved rest, bullish action is switching to common stocks
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March 19, 2008 - XAU to 237 and Gary's bet Update
Since the earlier version of this posting (XAU to 237 and Gary's bet ) has been been badly mauled by the Fed's actions of March 18, it seemed proper to
follow it up with this update.
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March 19, 2008 - Update of:
Will Gold and the EURO succumb to a six-year itch?
The answer now appears to be: YES
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Continuing under performance of Gold mining shares
Weekly and monthly Charts of XAU and XAU/Gold ratio.
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March 9, 2008
Chart of the Day: DX indicates US Dollar decline has run its course for the time being.
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March 6, 2008 - Update of:
A Good Reason for the Underperformance of Gold Mining Shares Relative to Gold: It's Spelled O -
I - L
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Mr. Minshkin's delusions know no bounds.
Mr. Minshkin did not shy away from exposing the extent of his delusional thinking in yet another of his learned speeches.
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PERSPECTIVE ON THE US DOLLAR (USD) AND THE US DOLLAR INDEX (USDX).: How weak the USD really is, particularly against the Euro?.
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Panoramic Euro Chart
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Chart of the day updated: Average Yearly Gold Price
February 29, 2008
Must read: "Petrodollar Tsunami Warning" by Stephen Jen, Morgan Stanley Economic Team
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"A Good Reason for the Under performance of Gold Mining Shares Relative to Gold: It's Spelled O - I - L".
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Recession 1990 revisited: The Message from Phila.
The message from the Business Outlook Survey for January, published today by the Philadelphia Federal Rserve Bank, matches the message from consumers commented upon in " Recession 1990 Revisited: The Message from Consumers" and has very bullish implications for Gold
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Update of Recession 1990 revisited: The message from the consumers
with latest ABC-Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index dated Feb.17 and released Feb. 19, 2008. This week, the Index was unchanged at (-37), a reading last registerd on October 14,1990 in the middle of the economic recession of that time.
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Update of Recession 1990 revisited: The message from the consumers
with latest ABC-Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index dated Feb.10 and released Feb. 12, 2008
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Will Gold and the EURO succumb to a six-year itch?
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The message of the yield curve: Economic Boom Beginning in 2010
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Charting the Recession : 2008 versus 2001
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1990 Recession Revisited? The message from consumers
Consumers' Comfort Index realeased today fell to levels not seen since the 1990 recession.
Jan. 30, 2008
WHAT REALLY CAUSED THE JANUARY STOCK MARKET MELTDOWN
Speculation has been rampant in the media, blogs, and various
financial commentaries as to what caused the stock market to crash so suddenly and violently this months. In this essay, we
offer an objective rational explanation positing a readjustment of the market to lower expectations for 2008 corporate earnings.
We find the readjustment exact and calculated in amount if somewhat harried and disorderly in performance.
Jan. 30, 2008
Was the Fed right or wrong to drastically cut interest rates last week?
This issue is hotly debated at this moment even as the Fed Board meets today to decide about a possible additional rate cut. Our answer is unequivocal: the Fed’s action was not necessary.
Jan. 30, 2008
Yield curve chart updated
in Where are we in the Businass Cycle posting
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On the under performance of Gold mining shares
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Where are we in the Business Cycle: A contraction phase and how Gold fits in it
In this short essay, three main themes will be discussed:
- The business cycle is now entering into a contraction phase that in many respects looks similar to the 2001 recession.
- In response, the stock market is behaving in a fashion very similar to the onset of the 2001 recession.
- Gold, and the Precious Metals market sector
in general, are following suit by embarking on a new up cycle as witnessed during the 2000-01 period.
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