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Charts 20
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May 6, 2008 Charts of the Day
Computer simulation of possible Oil prices projected to One Year Hence
From educated forecasts to pure speculation and noisy chatter, the subject of Oil prices, how high they will go,
how fast, has become the most popular guessing game in town as prices broke out decidedly above $120/barrel today.
We join the game with a computer simulation of possible future prices conducted under two main constraints:
1. The price of Oil had to remain contained within the existing and well established multi-years channel (Chart 1)
2. The price couldn't exceed a level 80 % above the 48 months moving average
which historically has signaled most price tops (Chart 2).
The simulation extends to April 2009. Prices would reach $125 this month spanning a range of 115-125 range.
A correction/consolidation to a price possibly as low as $90-$100 would ensue afterward.
The uptrend would then resume with prices reaching $142 in March 2009. This is a real fun exercise!.
The results are presented in the following Charts of the Day:
Computer simulation of possible Oil prices projected to One Year Hence
From educated forecasts to pure speculation and noisy chatter, the subject of Oil prices, how high they will go,
how fast, has become the most popular guessing game in town as prices broke out decidedly above $120/barrel today.
We join the game with a computer simulation of possible future prices conducted under two main constraints:
1. The price of Oil had to remain contained within the existing and well established multi-years channel (Chart 1)
2. The price couldn't exceed a level 80 % above the 48 months moving average
which historically has signaled most price tops (Chart 2).
The simulation extends to April 2009. Prices would reach $125 this month spanning a range of 115-125 range.
A correction/consolidation to a price possibly as low as $90-$100 would ensue afterward.
The uptrend would then resume with prices reaching $142 in March 2009. This is a real fun exercise!.
The results are presented in the following Charts of the Day:
| Chart 1 Computer simulation of Oil prices May 6/08 |
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| Simulation for period May 2008- April 2009 |
| Chart 2 Computer simulation of Oil prices May 6/08 |
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| Simulation for period May 2008-April 2009 |
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